A fifth trend transforming the world is the growth of both global economic interdependence and of global financial imbalances, unaccompanied by the growth of institutional capacities to manage these realities. Globalization has made national economies more vulnerable to resource constraints and financial shocks originating beyond national borders, and growing global demand for energy has the potential to lead to geopolitical tensions or even a global energy crisis. Financial imbalances related to the US trade deficit and the accumulation of dollar assets by Asian nations could lead to a dangerous collapse of the US dollar.

The sixth trend is the globalization of urgent health, environmental, and social problems. Global warming and pandemics like AIDS do not respect national borders. Poverty, ethnic conflict, and overpopulation also spill over borders, feeding what Moises Naim has called the “five wars of globalization” (over drugs, arms trafficking, money laundering, intellectual property, and alien smuggling).

These six trends present the global community with problems which are international in their origins and effects and will therefore require international solutions. They cry out for political leadership which only the United States is currently capable of providing. If the world succeeds in preventing nuclear terrorism, defeating Jihadism, integrating rising powers into a stable order, protecting global financial market stability, and fighting environmental and health threats, the United States will surely deserve much of the credit. If the world fails to meet these challenges, the United States will just as surely deserve much of the blame.

A New Realism

The United States needs a new realism in its foreign policy if it is to meet the challenges of this changed world. Such a new realism must harbor no illusions about the importance of a strong military in a dangerous world, but it must also understand the importance of diplomacy and multilateral cooperation in a world in which what goes on inside of one country has profound impacts on other countries.

A new realist foreign policy will require that the United States alter its present course in several ways. First and foremost, the United States must repair its alliances. The United States cannot lead other nations toward solutions to shared problems if these other nations do not trust US leadership. US policymakers need to restore respect and appreciation for US allies and for shared democratic values in order to coordinate international efforts for global problems.

US leaders also must restore their commitment to international law and multilateral cooperation, which means many things. It means promoting expansion of the UN Security Council’s permanent membership to include Japan, India, Germany, and one country each from Africa and Latin America. It also means ethical reform at the United Nations so that this vital institution can help its many underdeveloped and destitute member states meet the challenges of the 21st century. Finally, it means expanding the G8 to include new economic giants like India and China.

Beyond the United Nations, a commitment to international law means that the United States must be impeccable in its own human rights behavior. The US government must join the International Criminal Court and respect all international treaties, including the Geneva Conventions. It should reward countries that respect the Universal Declaration on Human Rights—and it should negotiate, constructively but firmly, with those who do not. The United States must also start taking human rights in Africa seriously. The two most horrendous recent human rights abuses have taken place in Rwanda and now Darfur, and history teaches that if the United States does not take the lead on ending these abuses, no one else will. The United States should have sent a special envoy as soon as the mass killings began in Darfur and should now put pressure not only Sudan, but also on other states, like China, that have influence in Sudan. US diplomatic engagement and leadership is essential to put global, multilateral pressure on such regimes. One way of doing so would be to enthusiastically support the International Criminal Court, so that individual leaders who engage in or allow crimes against humanity know they will be held accountable.

On environmental issues, the United States must be the leader, not the laggard, in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by embracing the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, and then, going well beyond it, leading the world with a man-on-the-moon effort to improve energy efficiency and to commercialize clean, alternative technologies. In order to lead, the United States should set an example for other countries, especially China and India, and cut fossil fuel consumption dramatically to work for a sustainable energy future. As the leading greenhouse gas emitter, the United States has a special responsibility to set and meet ambitious emission caps and alternative energy goals, to develop new technologies, and to promote those technologies in the developing world. Climate agreements must include tough and enforceable emission commitments from both developed and developing countries, as well as financial incentives and technology transfer assistance for developing countries.

In dealing with other states, the United States needs to stop considering diplomatic engagement with others as a reward for good behavior. The Bush administration’s reluctance to engage obnoxious regimes diplomatically has only encouraged and strengthened their most paranoid and hard-line tendencies. The futility of this policy is most tragically obvious with regard to Iran and North Korea, who responded to Washington’s snubs and threats with intensification of their nuclear programs. The United States must engage Russia and China more effectively, strategically, and systematically, respecting their legitimate interests while encouraging them to work cooperatively in building a stable, peaceful world.

Most urgently, the United States must focus on the real security threats, from which Iraq has so dangerously diverted its attention. This means doing the hard work to build strong coalitions to fight terrorists and to stop nuclear proliferation. There is a pronounced need for better human intelligence and better international intelligence and law enforcement coordination to prevent nuclear trafficking. US diplomatic leadership is needed to unite the world, including Russia and China, to sanction the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, and to provide these nations with positive incentives and face-saving ways to renounce nuclear weapons.