It is critical at this point that the European Union, Japan, and other nations recognize this reality—something that will be politically difficult for them at home. But such a recognition would allow the Bush administration to come back to the table: Bush has consistently argued that the Kyoto targets would have a serious economic impact on the United States, but his administration has equally consistently supported the flexible international trading mechanisms that have been negotiated to implement the Protocol. In addition, utilities facing the prospect of mandated emissions reductions have begun to make the case that access to the international mechanisms is critical to their ability to make cost-effective carbon dioxide emissions reductions. Making it clear to the Bush White House that US proposals to join the Protocol in the second budget period would be looked upon favorably would provide a politically palatable resolution to the situation. This would allow the Bush administration to join the agreement while renegotiating the targets agreed to by its predecessor.

The turbulence of 2001 has almost completely altered the political landscape around global-warming issues, and 2002 offers critical opportunities to capitalize on these changes. They must not be lost. The next year may produce a unique political dynamic and the best foreseeable opportunity to shift US policy onto a constructive path. The European Union, in particular, must participate in creating an atmosphere that both presses for change and shapes a constructive US response.

The United States must partner with others around the world on a program to develop alternative energy systems. The technological revolution needed for the urgent move to a hydrogen economy, for example, coupled with increased national investment in research for environmentally safe transportation, would yield huge results for the global environment. Such a far-reaching program would have a major stimulative effect for the world economy and would place the United States again in a position of genuine global vision and leadership.