In view of the changing dynamics in both the PRC and Taiwan and, in particular, in light of the upcoming Taiwanese elections, now is the time to reduce ambiguities in US policy toward the PRC and Taiwan. The United States should again articulate its adherence to the “one China” principle and warn Taiwan that US military response is not a given if Taiwan provokes a PRC response with unwarranted referendums. At the same time, the United States must continue to reinforce its expectation that a peaceful resolution is required. The bottom line is that if the United States acts first, then the Chinese won’t have to.

A new US administration in 2009 creates a ripe opportunity for the implementation of economic and institutional reforms within the United States, while simultaneously integrating the PRC into existing global structures as an emerging superpower. This expedient timing and cooperative effort will support both national interests. As the Chinese proverb goes, “All leaves fall back to the root.” With foresight, the United States can nurture falling leaves and perhaps even guide them back to the root—thereby maintaining peace along the Taiwan Strait and providing stability in the region.