In its quest for full membership in the European Union, the Republic of Turkey has traveled a long and arduous road. Having been an associate member of the European Union since 1963, Turkey became a candidate to be a full EU member in 1999. Finally, on October 3, 2005, the European Union started accession talks with Turkey. Despite much headway, however, the end of the road has not yet come. Indeed, it may still be far too early for Turks to begin celebrating.

Such skepticism is warranted by long-standing resistance within the European Union to a Turkish member state. Points of contention include Turkey’s geographic boundaries, economic instability, cultural and religious differences with the rest of Europe, questionable human rights record, and high population growth (by approximately 2015 Turkey, if made an EU member, would be the largest EU state). The overwhelming majority of European citizens oppose membership, according to a European Commission poll two years ago, which showed that only 35 percent of Europeans support Turkey’s bid.

The most outspoken critic on a state level, and the only country in the European Union to take a firm stance against membership, is Austria, which has long advocated a “privileged partnership” status for Turkey rather than full membership. It was Austria’s continuing opposition that seemed likely to stall the opening of accession talks past the scheduled date. Austria recently took over control of the EU presidency from Great Britain and might use the office to influence the outcome of the talks.

Several other key voices in the European community oppose membership. French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, a likely candidate for the French presidency in 2007, has opposed a Turkish member state. So has Angela Merkel, who took over as German chancellor in November 2005 and believes that “Turkey does not fit into the EU because it is culturally different.” With current and future leaders of Europe standing in stark opposition to the inclusion of Turkey in the European Union, it seems unlikely that the accession talks will proceed either smoothly or quickly.

The issue of Turkey’s EU membership is a contentious one within Turkey itself, albeit not to the degree it is in other European countries. While Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to work toward the ultimate goal of EU membership, conflict between various feuding parties has hindered his efforts. Erdogan faced opposition from Turkish nationalists who expressed outrage when Erdogan publicly admitted that Turkey had erred in its historical dealings with Kurds. There has been an increasing sense of nationalism in Turkey since 2004, when the outlawed Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) ended a five-year truce with the state. Since June 2004, the party has been stepping up its terrorist activity, killing a total of 100 Turks last year. The combination of this domestic tension, burgeoning nationalist sentiments, and growing Kurdish presence all have contributed to waning interest in the European Union within Turkey.

All this opposition to Turkish membership does not mean Turkey should stop seeking it. It seems that this issue has existed for so long that Turkey and many European countries have forgotten the rationale for membership. To begin with, there are remarkable strategic benefits to including Turkey in the European coalition, especially in light of current events. Turkey shares its borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran—all volatile nations that have at best tenuous relations with the West. Including Turkey in the European Union would provide a stronger and more legitimate Western presence in the region and could curb future terrorist activity. The alignment would also boast symbolic significance. Following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Turkish membership would show the West’s support for moderate, democratic Islamic states. Additionally, with US-Turkish relations tense due to the US presence in Iraq, Europe needs to ensure it does not alienate one of the West’s greatest allies in the Middle East by refusing to grant it membership. The stakes for the future of Western relations with the Middle East are nothing short of enormous.

The accession talks may mark a major turning point in the history of EU-Turkish relations. On one hand, they may well be the start of a decade-long struggle to achieve the final goal of full Turkish membership. Or they may be the beginning of a long and frustrating battle for all parties that ultimately ends in nothing but soured relations between Turkey and Europe.