Conclusion

Compared to the initial wave of regime change in the region, the number of dictatorships and democracies has grown dramatically in the last five years, while the pool of unconsolidated, semi-democratic, semi-autocratic regimes has dwindled to only two—Moldova and Armenia. Again, the region looks stable, polarized between these two extreme forms of government. And yet, the one lesson that the tumultuous last 15 years should teach us is that our ability to predict change in the region is no better than it was on the eve of the Soviet Union’s collapse.