Over the past decade, tension at the US-Mexican border has heightened as an enormous influx of Mexicans has entered the southwestern United States. According to a study conducted by Mexico’s National Population Council (CONAPO) in 2001, an estimated 3.5 to 5 million Mexican immigrants enter the United States each decade. Approximately 400,000 Mexicans cross the border annually, of which 175,000 are legal. The remaining 200,000 to 300,000 enter the United States illegally, primarily seeking employment and higher wage rates. This movement of Mexican workers into the southwestern United States has affected US-Mexican relations, particularly in Mexico.

In 2000, the recently inaugurated US President George W. Bush and Mexican President Vicente Fox began negotiating the immigration issue, weighing the costs and benefits of demographic changes. Initiating an illegal-alien amnesty was a priority on the United States’ agenda until September 11, when the United States abandoned the talks with Mexico and redirected its attention to combating terrorists. As Mexico presented no immediate threat to national security, the United States had larger external issues to address than Mexican immigration.

Massive emigration to the United States, however, remains an issue on the Mexican government’s mind. Mexico is experiencing rapid population growth, which contributes to tightening economic and social conditions. CONAPO estimates the Mexican fertility rate will reach 2.1 percent by 2005 and the population will reach approximately 115 million by 2010. As a result, the unemployment and underemployment rates have risen as fewer job opportunities have emerged in the market. The Mexican government loosely defines an employed person as someone who is at least 12 years old and who works at least one hour per week; unemployment rates in 2003 reached approximately 3.5 percent, which is phenomenally high considering the definition of an employed person. Mexican underemployment, which encompasses employees earning less than minimum wage or those unable to find more than 35 hours of paid work a week, reached a staggering 9.03 percent in 2003.

The US recession after September 11 partially contributed to this unemployment increase for Mexico, but exponential birth rates have been known to stunt economic growth as well. Even during a recession, the United States, with higher wage rates and a relatively higher standard of living, is an extremely attractive alternative for impoverished Mexicans. However slow the economy is in the United States, it remains considerably slower in Mexico at any given time. After the peso devaluation between the years 2001 to 2002, an increased number of Mexicans, despite a sluggish economy in the United States, crossed the border to escape Mexico’s recession, which was anticipated to worsen in the following year.

Fox’s concern for the migration flow persisted after September 11. The CONAPO immigration report and Fox’s continued efforts to negotiate with President Bush in the midst of the US War on Terror reinforced border controls as a top priority on the Mexican agenda. US Ambassador to Mexico Jeffrey Davidow suggests that it was because of the lack of US concern over the border issue that Mexico responded defensively by disapproving a unilateral attack on Iraq. At one point, Mexico and the United States jointly scrutinized the patrols at the border to ensure that Mexico was not harboring terrorists. Mexico enjoyed the United States’ attention briefly, but again was ignored by its northern neighbor who went to war in Iraq.

Now, as the war in Iraq has totaled over US$200 billion, the United States cannot afford to pay much attention to the issue of migration. Additionally, the benefit of having Mexican workers present during a recession outweighs the United States’ interest in protecting its relatively good relationship with Mexico: an influx of workers willing to work at lower wages for extensive hours brings about a labor supply increase, a subsequent price drop, and thus a small step out of recession. Republicans are generally content with the Mexican immigration because cheap labor enhances the economy’s performance. Democrats are satisfied with the status of Mexican immigration because, with an increase of workers, labor unions and minority groups are strengthened, giving increasing power to the party. Perhaps the United States’ inattentiveness to the issue is not entirely unintentional as the US workforce is relatively dependent on Mexican labor.

The peculiar situation at the border is exacerbated because of recessions in both the United States and Mexico. As the United States directs most of its attention to its mission in Iraq and other states, as well as pressing domestic issues, the illegal-alien amnesty campaign is being further delayed. Mexico, meanwhile, waits impatiently for the United States to continue with the negotiations Fox and Bush initiated in 2000.

The past decade of US diplomatic efforts in Mexico have been dedicated largely to the formation of a symbiotic relationship between the United States and Mexico, a more equal rapport to facilitate trade, and the establishment of a political alliance between the two countries. However, the lack of cooperation between Mexico and the United States in the past four years has made it evident that, regardless of treaties such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and other purported efforts to improve US-Mexican relations, Mexico is still heavily dependent on the United States. Mexico is also cognizant and regretful of the fact that its northern neighbor is the hope of millions of Mexicans in times of depression in their homeland.