In the soft power stakes, the US economic model is a strong, but far from dominant, competitor. Depending on a society’s valuation of economic risk versus economic security, and leisure time versus labor income, there is a range of successful models to follow. The economic landscape is more multi-polar than the military one in the post-Cold War world. International negotiations over the rules of the economic game will increasingly hinge on the merits of each case rather than the economic power of the participants.

Summing up

The table entitled “Progress of Power” summarizes this assessment of US economic power alongside the conventional wisdom regarding military power. Two conclusions emerge. First, the United States’ military power—or at least its “hard” ability to achieve military ends—is considerably stronger than its economic power. Second, US economic power has passed its peak and is likely to fall further. This does not mean that the US economy is in decline. Indeed, the growing economic interdependence that is responsible for the erosion of US economic power is a stimulus to growth in the United States, as well as other countries. A multi-polar world economy, which no one country or economic bloc dominates, and where international rules for open trade and fair competition constrain the actions of all, brings great mutual benefit. This can best be achieved by continuing to support and respect the WTO, and by recognizing the legitimacy of competing economic models. Conversely, the greatest threat to this emerging economic order would be for the United States to fail to recognize the limits of its economic power and to attempt to lever its military superiority to achieve broader economic or ideological ends.