Angola’s Agony
Tenuous Times Post-Civil War
by Jordan Boslego
From Energy, Vol. 26 (4) - Winter 2005
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Jordan Boslego is a staff writer at the Harvard International Review.

More than two years after the end of decades of armed conflict in Angola, many citizens—particularly in rural areas—in this oil-rich country are still waiting to reap the benefits of peace. During the conflict, Angola’s largest opposition group, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), was an illegal militia that frequently clashed with the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) until the 2002 assassination of UNITA’s chief, Jonas Savimbi. Since then, a peace marred by lawlessness and skirmishes has been sustained, and UNITA has been transformed into a political party under the leadership of Isaias Samakuva. UNITA and dozens of other opposition groups hope to win seats in the National Assembly in Angola’s first elections since 1992, which are slated to occur within the next two years. Now that the civil war is over, however, Angola faces serious challenges on nearly every level.

Many of the estimated four million internally displaced persons and 440,000 refugees who sought asylum in bordering countries during the conflict have yet to return to their homes. Refugees who fought the MPLA are also afraid to return, despite the government’s guarantee of pardon. Under-funded food-aid programs have been further hampered by the government’s refusal to accept any genetically modified grain. The United Nations World Food Program has stated that, due to impassable roads, bridges decimated by fighting, and the land mines that remain, transporting food in a peacetime Angola costs five times more than in war-ravaged Sudan. This has led to a large number of starving rural children in a country with a birth rate of 7.2 live births per female. Furthermore, tribal wars over territory, cattle, and other scarce resources are commonplace in the drought-barren, undeveloped regions of Angola.

Politically, the state of affairs is no better. UNITA and other groups, such as the National Angolan Progressive Alliance Party (PDP-ANA), accuse the ruling MPLA of intimidating their members and have blamed the government for several assassinations, including that of PDP-ANA’s president in July 2004. Opposition parties also accuse the government of delaying the elections, which they want to hold in September 2005. The MPLA insists on postponing elections until late 2006, claming that it is imperative that a revision of the country’s constitution be made first, and in March 2004 laid out 14 “pre-conditions” that it says must be satisfied before any elections can occur. All parties concede that an agreement on electoral process law and the disbandment of so-called civil defense organizations are prerequisites to any voting, but opposition forces continue to insist that next September is a reasonable timeframe. This disagreement has served to further increase tensions between the MPLA and other parties. The path to establishing elections is further complicated by the fact that seven Angolans in ten are under the age of 24, and most citizens have never voted.

Further complicating the political situation is the MPLA’s intermittent genocidal war against separatist factions in the occupied territory of Cabinda, which it has been waging since Angola’s independence in 1975. Cabinda, home to approximately 300,000 people, is separated from the rest of Angola by a narrow waterway and is the source of half of Angola’s one million barrels per day of crude oil production. The largest separatist faction, the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda, claims that the region has its own distinct culture, history, and identity and is being illegally occupied. Human rights watchdogs have reported abuse, torture, rape, and illegal detentions perpetuated by the Angolan military in Cabinda, but MPLA president Jose Eduardo dos Santos categorically denies that there is any armed conflict at all in the region.

Angola’s economy is improving and its gross domestic product is expected to grow by 13 percent this year, largely due to high oil prices and a decrease in income diverted towards war efforts. Inflation is down from a peak of 3,784 percent in 1995 to double-digit levels, food has become more affordable, and several foreign companies have oil ventures underway. Most of the country’s 13 million rural people have seen little change since the end of the war and are frustrated to find themselves still living in poverty with no hope of a job outside of subsistence farming. For either party to win in the elections, a plan must be articulated for rebuilding the country, narrowing the inequality between urban and rural life, ending human rights violations, and ensuring economic growth.