What then should we believe today about the relation between political institutions and economic development? The goal of the research on political institutions is to identify those institutional arrangements that promote economic growth, internal peace, and general welfare. Thus far, we have not been very successful. One paradox of this area of research is that while subjective evaluations—whether of corruption, transparency, security of property rights, or simply the “quality of governance”—will predict economic performance, studies based on observable aspects of political institutions consistently raise doubts. Nevertheless, many international bodies and agencies of the US government are eager to impart advice to less developed countries, and some are even willing to condition their policies on what they consider “good governance.” In my view, most of this advice is ill-founded and hastily offered, as likely to be helpful as to lead to disaster. This story cautions against pretending that we know more than we do. Blueprints—whether communist, anti-communist, authoritarian, or neo-liberal—have a wretched historical record. 




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