Nigerian Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi remarked last year that the “promises and prospects which the democratic experiment once held in view for most have given away to depression and despair. Some are even tempted to conclude that it would have been better for us to have remained in the Egypt of militarism than the wilderness of democratization without dividends.” After three years of democracy, Nigeria’s economy is still faltering despite its status as the world’s sixth-largest exporter of petroleum, producing 1.9 million barrels a day, or 4.5 percent of the world’s total production.

The government’s handling of the economy has also been strongly criticized by the International Monetary Fund. Although Obasanjo stated that a tougher import inspection policy had raised customs revenue and limited fraud, the largest item in the 2002 budget is still expected to be military spending, with the defense budget amounting to US$430 million. In this poverty-stricken country of more than 120 million people, the military has for years accounted for the largest share of government spending. According to most military analysts, the military has little to show for the funds it receives because much of the money is siphoned off into private pockets.

Some limited economic reforms have been made. According to Rotimi Subero, a senior lecturer at Nigeria’s University of Ibadan, Obasanjo has ambitiously embarked upon exchange rate reform, the privatization of a few public enterprises, an increase in public wages, and the improvement of Nigeria’s gross currency reserves. Nevertheless, Nigeria’s external debt continues to be a manacle on the nation’s economy. In 2002, Nigeria will spend US$3.4 billion servicing its external debt of US$28.6 billion.

Undermining these reforms is the lack of a coherent program and the continuing corruption of Nigeria’s politicians, most noticeably in the National Assembly. In 1999 the president of the Senate and the speaker of the House of Representatives were removed from their positions for forgery and perjury.

Promising Trends

Despite Obasanjo’s lack of resolve in his first three years in office, Nigeria remains one of Africa’s great hopes. With the adoption of careful reforms, Nigeria can take on a vital role in the leadership of Africa. Last March, Obasanjo called on the presidents and diplomats of 19 African countries to decide on a unified code of conduct for African nations needing Western aid. The assistance plan, dubbed the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), calls for the establishment of an African peer-review mechanism and a “Council of the Wise” comprised of respected African figures who would monitor abuses of human rights and democracy. NEPAD has already been embraced by the international community; the inaugural meeting on April 15, 2002, in Dakar was attended by over 1,000 participants, including 20 African presidents and prime ministers, corporate leaders, and UN officials. As a primary architect of NEPAD along with Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, and South African President Thabo Mbeki, Obasanjo has shown that regional cooperation can reap great economic and political dividends.

Another much lauded policy of Obasanjo is his recent commitment to initiate a program for comprehensive HIV testing of all Nigerians. By approving the budgetary establishment of over 300 primary health centers, Obasanjo has taken concrete steps toward stemming the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Already, approximately 100 primary health care centers, vital additions to Nigeria’s growing health care infrastructure, are ready for commissioning.

Professor Ibironke Akinsete, Nigeria’s chairman of the National Action Committee on HIV/AIDS, has stated that “any country which aspires to lead Africa must take urgent and practical steps to reverse its … burden of HIV/AIDS.” Nigeria has responded to the AIDS crisis by enacting vital measures to ensure the health of its people. In contrast to Mbeki’s ignorance of the AIDS epidemic, Obasanjo and his administration have shown that Nigeria can become a leader in the struggle against AIDS in Africa.

Fresh Opportunities

If actually implemented and coupled with stable government, initiatives such as NEPAD would be a step toward achieving greater transparency and legitimacy for Nigeria. Echoing the general hope for the success of NEPAD, prominent Nigerian businessman Yemi Akeju declared, “With 700 million people, Africa is significantly a sector of the world that cannot be ignored … But what we are now looking out for are the investors. Investors worldwide are looking for a place where they will have fresh opportunity to do business. With the new climate created in Africa by the NEPAD initiative, one would say there are fresh opportunities here.”

Nigeria can provide the leadership that Africa needs to effectively address the issues of globalization and democracy, yet its own democracy is still threatened by corruption and ethnic strife. Nigeria has also shown that it can make changes to ameliorate the legacy of decades of military rule. Although ethnic tension still divides Nigerian society, Obasanjo has the opportunity to mend the divisions by strengthening a legitimate Nigerian democracy.

Among one of the most daunting challenges remaining to be addressed is the relationship between the police and military in Nigeria. Alhaji Ibrahim Coomasie, former inspector general of police, recently noted the Nigerian police “has been torn between the civil populace and the military, so much so that its civil traditions are almost lost to military authoritarianism.” In contrast, the current inspector general has embraced the military as a partner in fighting crime, adding uncertainty to the future role of Nigeria’s military. Despite the marriage of the police and military, nongovernmental organizations such as the Centre for Law Enforcement Education have fostered greater cooperation and trust between civilians and police through police-community partnerships. In order to ensure that the military does not become an agent of illegitimate power, it needs to be completely separated from the civilian police force. Increasing the size of the civilian police force from 180,000 to 577,000 officers, as Obasanjo has recently directed the inspector general to do, is no panacea. Nigeria must increase the transparency of its military and police forces to overcome the legacy of its military past.

Two futures for Africa are possible—one with a democratic and stable Nigeria, and one with a Nigeria stricken by autocratic rule, corruption, and intermittent coups. An entire continent awaits the result of the Nigerian experiment with democracy. Nigeria has the resources and can provide leadership to foster greater regional and international cooperation, leadership that many of Nigeria’s neighbors need. A successful Nigerian democracy would provide hope for many of Africa’s other burgeoning democracies.